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2024-12-13 02:29:35

IShares China large-cap ETF rose 8%, Kraneshares Shanghai-Shenzhen-China Internet ETF rose 10.3%.More than 80,000 people will be evacuated in the Philippines due to the eruption of Mount Canraon, and more than half of the residents are in "dangerous" areas. According to the news of the Philippine Civil Defence Bureau on December 9, due to the eruption of Mount Canraon, the Philippines needs to evacuate about 87,000 residents near the volcano urgently. Among them, the situation in Terrana, lacasse is particularly serious, where about 46,900 people live in the dangerous area of 4-6 kilometers of the Calaon volcano.The price of natural gas in the United States rose by more than 3%, reaching the highest point in a week.


Market information: Yizi International explores the acquisition of American chocolate manufacturer Hershey. Hershey triggered an intraday fuse, which rose by 5.7% before trading was suspended.Interpretation of the Political Bureau Meeting in December by CITIC Securities: It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that a new round of policy starting guns will be fired, and the policy inflection point will be reconfirmed, making it clear that the macro policy will be strengthened and effective in 2025. From the perspective of fiscal policy, the meeting called for the implementation of a "more active fiscal policy" and enriched the policy toolbox, which may indicate that in 2025, both deficit ratio in a narrow sense and deficit ratio in a broad sense will be significantly improved, and the focus of policy development is also expected to be marginal in the field of people's livelihood consumption. From the perspective of monetary policy, this Politburo meeting calls for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. This is the first time that China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy after 2010. It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. From the perspective of domestic demand policy, the statement of expanding domestic demand in an all-round way, especially "vigorously boosting consumption", exceeds market expectations. With the support of the existing policies coming into effect and the policy of increasing domestic demand, the improvement of domestic demand may have strong certainty and sustainability. In addition, in terms of structural policies, on the one hand, the meeting clearly stated that it is necessary to "stabilize the property market and the stock market", and the importance of the stock market continues to be highlighted, and real estate is still in the policy landing period; On the other hand, the meeting emphasized that "scientific and technological innovation leads the development of new quality productive forces", and new industries and future industries are expected to receive further policy support.British Prime Minister Stamer: Stability in the Middle East is crucial to ensuring domestic security, and promised to strengthen Britain's participation in the Middle East to support long-term stability.


The monthly wholesale sales rate in the United States in October was -0.1%, and the previous value was revised from 0.30% to 0.5%. The monthly wholesale inventory rate in the United States in October was revised to 0.2%, expected to be 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.20%.Interpretation of Guangfa Strategy December Politburo Meeting: The change of policy tone "not seen for several years" is more direct to the determination to support the stability of the equity market and the real estate market. Guangfa Strategy Review December Politburo Meeting said that although the draft of the meeting did not involve specific economic target figures, the change of policy tone was "not seen for several years": (1) "Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment" appeared for the first time in the draft of the conference, and we understand that this may well mean that the official target of deficit ratio will be unconventional. (2) "Moderately loose monetary policy" has reappeared since July 2010, and it has been "steady" during the period. Even in the 14-15 monetary easing cycle, there was no adjustment of this wording, which paved the way for the expectation of monetary easing in 25 years; (3) The "more active fiscal policy" has reappeared since July 2020. Under the special background of the 20-year epidemic, the official target of deficit ratio in that year was set at 3.6%, which was the highest since 2010. The change of tone after four years also indicates that the deficit space in 25 years is expected to be further opened. Specific to economic work, the first priority is to "expand domestic demand", and the expression of "stabilize the property market and stock market" is more straightforward: the importance of expanding domestic demand is unquestionable, which alleviates the concern of "whether to only resolve risks and lack demand stimulation" in the early stage of the market; In September, the Politburo meeting stated that the stock market should strive to boost the capital market and the property market should "promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize". This meeting was more direct in its determination to support the stability of the equity market and the real estate market.US stocks of China Stock Exchange and ETF soared at the beginning of the session, and China ETF rose more than 22% when it tripled its wealth.

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